本文作者Pete Cashmore是美国著名博客网站Mashable的创始人兼CEO：

1、资讯的实时更新（Real-time ramps up）

    由于Twitter、Facebook以及FriendFeed这些提供实时信息资讯的社交网站在2009年风靡全世界，产生的效果就如同Web2.0对于2007年网络生活的影响一般。这一趋势代表了人们渴望互动交流更加具有即时性，人们会为这种即时的互动而感到疯狂。这就是我们现在的生活。

    但是在2010年里，即时性不仅仅是指一些像Twitter这样的交友网络的风行。它是一种多种因素的合成——从现代智能手机的相互联接到类似谷歌搜索提供的“即时满足（Instant Gratification）”这样的服务。

    不过对于这些即时性的服务也要注意，今年早些时候推出的Google Wave就使得用户兴奋的同时也产生了些困惑。Google Wave将即时信息、电子邮件和维基百科结合起来，但是用户还是感到有些为难。2010年用户对于谷歌的依赖将更加明显。

2、方位，方位，方位（Location, location, location ）

    由于智能手机中配备了GPS，诸如 Foursquare, Gowalla, Brightkite 和Google Latitude这样的方位共享服务成为了一种潮流。

    两周前当“我”在构思这篇文章的时候，Foursquare成为了今年人们关注的焦点。Foursquare表示他们并不会因为成为Twitter和Facebook的服务提供商而没落。

    现在大家都明确的是方位共享服务并不是单一的服务，它是网络中一套新的完整的服务模式。很快，我们的方位信息就会有选择的出现在每一个Tweet、博客推荐和用户上传的图片或者视频中。

3、扩增实境技术（Augmented reality）

    扩增实境技术现在还没有在用户中广泛地流行开来，但是在2009年末期这项技术已经被某些最先尝试者使用。

    通过GPS，用户可以将来自谷歌和其他数据供应商的地图数据装载到手机中。这项技术还可以记录你周围环境的数据，想象一下当你走遍一座城市之后可以利用这项技术回顾你所经过的某一家饭店或是利用维基百科查询一下你看到的某个标志。

    比如当你使用Layar时，从你手机摄像头中拍到的画面的相关信息马上就会从Yelp、维基百科、谷歌搜索或是Twitter上显现出来。这项技术现在面临的挑战在于证明它的实用性。它的确很酷，但是它真的有用吗？

4、网络内容的监管（Content 'curation'）

    近年来网络所遇到的最最大挑战就是网络的资讯量已经超出了我们的消耗能力。“信息过载（Information overload）”已经越来越成为人们抱怨的话题之一。

    在注意力经济（attention economy）的时代，面对每天数百万计的信息更新量以及数十亿计的网络页面“轰炸”着我们这个时代，我们应该如何适当分配那些稀有资源呢？现在的解决方法是：我们需要的是像谷歌新闻（Google News）这样的优秀的资源，但是如果是个性化的资源我们就会舍弃。

    与此同时，谷歌的社交搜索（Social Search ）的实验目前还处在调查阶段，调查的内容在于从他人的Twitter、Facebook、掘客(DIGG)或者别的个人主页上搜集信息是否能够有效地改善网页搜索的性能。现在，越来越多的用户可以成为别人消耗资源过程的看护者，从网络到电影、书籍或者电视节目。

5、“云计算”（Cloud computing ）

    “云计算”算的上是2009年的一个流行词。毋庸置疑，这样的变化还将继续。“云计算”（数据和应用程序像云一样存在于无处不在的服务器上）允许用户在任何时间任何地点都可以接入数据。

    2010年微软将会推出一款在线的免费版Office办公软件——“在线办公应用程序（Office Web Apps）”，它将标志着“云计算”技术又向前迈进了一大步。

    明年我们将看到谷歌推出的Chrome操作系统——一款免费的基于网络的操作系统。我们不禁要问：“我们到底需要多少台式电脑的应用程序？”

6、Internet TV and movies（网络电视和电影）

    2010年我们会利用网络看电视和电影吗？现在这项技术比以往任何时候都要活跃——对于一些最先尝试者来说，Hulu视频网，Boxee, 苹果电视（Apple TV）以及Netflix的 （热酷盒子）Roku box 都已经占据了一部分的市场。

7、汇聚一体化难题（Convergence conundrum ）

    当每天随身携带的手机中汇聚了越来越多的小工具并且这种潮流迅速蔓延的时候，对于2010年这种趋势的前景人们却看到了相反的结果。

    GPS制造商TomTom公司日前推出了一款价值100美元的iPhone应用软件，使得用户不需要购买TomTom的硬件设备。谷歌随即推出了一款适合在装备有Android操作系统的设备上使用的免费导航仪。

    在那些“濒临灭亡”的工具清单上，“Flip摄像机”应用软件就位列其中——由于iPhone3GS的推出，“电脑世界杂志（PC World）”宣布了它的“死亡”。与此同时，苹果公司的高层们宣布iPhone与iPod将拥有相同的配置——“我只要用一个，干嘛给我俩呢？”

8、社交游戏（Social gaming）

    2010年里，社交游戏应该不会面临多少风险。Facebook的高管们表示，Facebook的游戏提供商Zynga推出的 Farmville游戏的用户数已经超过了Twitter。同时，Facebook的竞争对手Playfish已经被美国电子艺界公司（Electronic Arts ）耗资4亿美元收购。

9、移动支付（Mobile payments ）

    我想2010年是众多移动支付业务企业有所突破的一年。现在亚洲市场已经接受了这一技术，而美国却落在了后面。我们有理由对 2010年移动支付市场的发展感到乐观——从贝宝（PayPalX）到研发人员版本的亚马逊的移动支付平台（Amazon's mobile payments platform ）可以看出，众多大公司都想在“移动支付”这块大蛋糕上分一块。

10、足够的名望和个人隐私的缺失（Fame abundance, privacy scarcity ）

    社交媒体创造了太多的“明星”——我们每个人在Facebook、Twitter以及别的社交网站上都能成为万众瞩目的焦点。基于网络的社交群体难以置信的工作效率可以让我们知道所有我们想知道的事情，当然也包括个人的隐私。相信在2010年，个人隐私一定会成为网络的热门话题。

原文地址： http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/12/03/cashmore.web.trends.2010/index.html

Real-time ramps up

Sparked by Twitter, Facebook and FriendFeed, the real-time trend has been to the latter part of 2009 what "Web 2.0" was to 2007. The term represents the growing demand for immediacy in our interactions. Immediacy is compelling, engaging, highly addictive ... it's a sense of living in the now.

But real-time is more than just a horde of new Twitter-like services hitting the Web in 2010 (although that's inevitable -- cargo cults abound). It's a combination of factors, from the always-connected nature of modern smartphones to the instant gratification provided by a Google search.

Why wait until you get home to post a restaurant review, asks consumer trends tracker Trendwatching, when scores of iPhone apps let you post feedback as soon as you finish dessert? Why wonder about the name of that song, when humming into your phone handset will garner an instant answer from Midomi?

Look out, too, for real-time collaboration: Google Wave launched earlier this year, resulting in both excitement and confusion. A crossover between instant messaging, e-mail and a wiki, Wave is a platform for getting things done together. Web users, however, remain baffled. In 2010, Wave's utility will become more apparent.

Location, location, location

Fueled by the ubiquity of GPS in modern smartphones, location-sharing services like Foursquare, Gowalla, Brightkite and Google Latitude are suddenly in vogue.

As I ruminated in this column two weeks ago, Foursquare and its ilk may become the breakout services of the year ... provided they're not crushed by the addition of location-based features to Twitter and Facebook.

What's clear is that location is not about any singular service; rather, it's a new layer of the Web. Soon, our whereabouts may optionally be appended to every Tweet, blog comment, photo or video we post.

Augmented reality

It's yet to become part of the consumer consciousness, but augmented reality has attracted early-adopter buzz in the latter part of 2009.

Enabled by GPS, mapping data from the likes of Google and the accelerometer technology in modern phones, AR involves overlaying data on your environment; imagine walking around a city and seeing it come to life with reviews of the restaurants you walk past and Wikipedia entries about the sights you see.

When using Layar, for instance, the picture from your phone's video camera is overlaid with bubbles of information from Yelp, Wikipedia, Google Search and Twitter. The challenge for such services is to prove their utility: They have the "cool factor," but can they be truly useful?

Content 'curation'

The Web's biggest challenge of recent years is that content creation is outpacing our ability to consume it: "Information overload" has become an increasingly common complaint.

In the attention economy, with its millions of daily status updates and billions of Web pages vying for our time, how do we best allocate that scarce resource? One solution has been algorithmic: Sites like Google News source the best stuff by technical means, but fall short when it comes to personalization.

In 2008, the answer revealed itself: Your friends are your filter. With the launch of its Facebook Connect program, Facebook allowed sites to offer content personalization based on the preferences of your network.

Meanwhile, Google's Social Search experiment is investigating whether Web searching is improved by using information gleaned from your friends on Twitter, Facebook, Digg and the rest. Increasingly, your friends are becoming the curators of your consumption, from Web links to movies, books and TV shows.

Professional "curation" has its place, too: Who better to direct our scarce attention than experts in their fields? I explored this possibility in a CNN article last month titled "Twitter lists and real-time journalism" .

Cloud computing

Cloud computing was very much a buzzword of 2009, but there's no doubt this transition will continue. The trend, in which data and applications cease to reside on our desktops and instead exist on servers elsewhere ("the cloud"), makes our data accessible from anywhere and enables collaboration with distributed teams.

The cloud movement will see a major leap forward in the first half of 2010 with the launch of "Office Web Apps," free online versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote released in tandem with Microsoft Office 2010.

Next year will also see the launch of Google's Chrome OS, a free, Web-centric operating system that forces us to ask: How many desktop applications do we really need?

Internet TV and movies

Is 2010 the year the majority of our television starts coming to us via the Internet? There's certainly more activity here than at any other time: Among the early-adopter set, Hulu, Boxee, Apple TV and Netflix's Roku box lead the field.

Hulu in particular has sustained remarkable growth this year, while the movie studios are getting on board with the launch of Epix, a Hulu for films.

Convergence conundrum

The outlook for devices in 2010 appears somewhat contradictory: While the convergence trend continues apace and many of our gadgets are folded into the smartphones we carry around every day, we're seeing a converse trend in which task-specific devices gain popularity.

GPS device maker TomTom recently introduced a $100 iPhone app that removes the need to buy a TomTom hardware device. Google then one-upped the company by releasing free turn-by-turn directions on devices running its Android operating system. Garmin and TomTom beware: Standalone GPS devices may meet their demise in 2010.

Also on the endangered gadgets list: Flip video cameras, which PC World declared dead upon the launch of the iPhone 3G S. Meanwhile, Apple executives say the iPhone is cannibalizing the iPod: Why carry two devices when you only need one?

Paradoxically, the e-book reader is seeing traction as a single-use device. With hard-to-read, power-hungry laptop screens proving impractical for reading, and smartphone screens proving too small, the Kindle and its competitors are gaining buzz.

However, I'd argue that the e-book reader is a fad: Carrying an extra device is never desirable, and the major factor preventing convergence is the lack of superior screen technology. Flexible, expanding low-power screens on cell phones might tip the balance.

The real power of Amazon's Kindle is its ease of use: a virtual bookstore so simple that it does for books what Apple's iTunes did for music. The devices will converge, but the "app store" model for books will persist across all devices. The technology won't be with us in 2010, however.

Social gaming

There's little risk of social gaming proving a bad bet in 2010 -- Zynga's FarmVille game on Facebook now counts more active users than Twitter, claims a Facebook executive. Meanwhile, rival Playfish was recently acquired by Electronic Arts in a deal valued at up to $400 million.

Of growing interest in 2010, however, will be the virtual currencies these games have spawned: In the allegedly unmonetizable world of social media, virtual buying and selling may be the route to riches for some social media sites -- a concept I outlined in this column under the title "Is Facebook the future of micropayments?"

Mobile payments

I'd wager that 2010 will be the breakthrough year of the much-anticipated mobile payments market. While much of Asia has embraced the technology, the U.S., in particular, has lagged. There's reason for optimism in 2010, however: From PayPalX to Amazon's mobile payments platform for developers, the big players are seizing the mobile payments opportunity.

Meanwhile, newcomer Square, founded by the creator of Twitter, began its rollout this week to much early-adopter excitement: The company enables merchants to accept payments via Apple's iPhone.

Fame abundance, privacy scarcity

Warhol was right: Fame is now abundant. Social media has birthed a galaxy of stars in thousands of niches: We're all reality stars now, on Facebook, Twitter and all the myriad online outlets where we hone our personal brands.

We're seeing the ongoing voluntary erosion of privacy through public sharing on Facebook and Twitter, the rise of location-based services and the inclusion of video cameras in a growing array of devices.

The incredible efficiency of Web-based communication and our Google-fueled appetite to know everything about everything (or everyone) right now are combining to make Tiger Woods the canary in the privacy coal mine. Expect personal privacy -- or rather its continued erosion -- to be a hot media topic of 2010.